Politics of Money

Fred's Announcement this week

2007-09-04T09:44:00.000-07:00

For those who haven't been following the political race, the Republican field for President in 2008 will have another entry this week. It's U.S. Senator-turned-actor Fred Thompson. It all started as hype - "Hey you know, that guy on Law & Order seems preisdental." Now that hype will be put to the test as Fred formally becomes a candidate this week.

Fred has a big announcement tour this week throughout the primary states. He will be getting a lot of press coverage, and it will go great. However, September 30th will come around, which means he only has one month to raise money for the third quarter as formal candidate. If he can raise more than $10 million, the hype will be validated. If he does under $5, the viability of his campaign will be questioned.

Here are some links to the articles regarding Fred's announcement this week:

Thompson's Long Hello Comes to and End

Is Thompson Too Late to the Campaign Trail?

Centre-Right Said Fred

Clinton Donor Under a Cloud in Fraud Case

2007-08-30T09:09:00.000-07:00

From the New York Times:

Senator Clinton's campaign said yesterday that it would give to charity $23,000 it had received from a prominent Democratic donor, and review thousands of dollars more that he had raised, after learning that the authorities in California had a warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 fraud case.

The donor, Norman Hsu, has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Democratic candidates since 2003, and was slated to be co-host next month for a Clinton gala featuring the entertainer Quincy Jones.

But what was not widely known was that Mr. Hsu, who is in the apparel business in New York, has been considered a fugitive since he failed to show up in a San Mateo County courtroom about 15 years ago to be sentenced for his role in a scheme to defraud investors, according to the California attorney general’s office.

------------------------------------------------------------

Without going into the specifics, a candidate hardly has the time to do background checks on their donor. They're usually too busy travelling to events, giving policy speeches, going on interviews, etc to even bother with this stuff. Now if the fundraiser was known to have some black spots in his or her history, a candidate can always look the other way. Remember, these are guys that can raise a ton of money, and that's what makes them more valuable due to the limits on contributions.

Hillary Clinton's campaign probably knew this, but chose to not mention it. After all, if nobody did, her war chest would just continue to grow!

Freeloaders

2007-08-23T08:47:00.000-07:00

Having done events for over two years, there are always freeloaders trying to make their way in, without having to pay the $200, $500, $1.000, or $25,000 ticket fees to enter. If it's someone in their 20s, just looking to get a glimpse of the candidate, I understand.

The annoying freeloaders are those that are 40+, and know they should be writing a check to attend the event, but dont. Elected officials are notoriously known to be freeloaders, along with those that belong to the local Republican/Democrat party, or even at the state level. It is quite astonishing on how big the ego of freeloaders can be, thinking they are as important, if not more, than a donor raising $25K+.

Many times, we get phone calls like this.

Caller: "Hi, this is Joan calling from City Councilman John Smith's office. The councilman would like to RSVP to the event on May 5th, 2007."

Me: "OK great! Do you have all the information you need?"

Caller: "Yes, it's at the Ritz Carlton in Dana Point, etc..."

Me: "Great - will John be sending in a contribution by mail?"

Caller: "Um....let me check with him. Can I call you back?"

Me: *Chuckles* "Yes, sure - I'll be here until 6PM today."

The truth is, all that matters at a fundraiser is money, and if you can't bring the money, raise it, or get someone else to pay for you, you have no place at a fundraiser.

Fred Thompson's 'trophy wife' runs the show

2007-07-30T16:57:00.000-07:00

"Mr Thompson, 64, a former senator and actor who is running second in most polls of Republican nominees even before he has officially declared his candidacy, last week replaced his campaign manager in a shake-up of his top team - which, it has emerged, was initiated by his wife.

Another senior aide quit after clashes with Mrs Thompson, a youthful-looking 40, who is in effect managing her husband's White House bid and has hiring and firing authority over staff, according to campaign insiders.

A campaign aide, also speaking anonymously, told The Washington Post that Mrs Thompson decided everything from the content of direct mailings to the date for her husband to make his official declaration, now expected at the end of the summer. "You name it - anything," said the aide." Source

It's great that the wife is involved, but does she even have the experience from running a presidential campaign? Probably not. I'm willing to bet those staffers quit because she had no idea what she was doing and micromanaging. You better hire someone who has done one, because the heat only goes higher and higher.

How to attend your local Presidential candidate event...

2007-07-26T11:07:00.000-07:00

You hear about it on the news, only to realize that your candidate stopped by a location only a few miles from your house! No worry, I will give you a small insider's guide on how to attend a fundraising event with your favorite Presidential candidate! You only need a couple of things - computer, telephone, and a business attire.

1) Check with your local county Democrat/Republican Party. Invites are usually sent to the county chairman, and their office will have an idea, even if nobody is attending from the local party. If not, ask for any referrals who may know about an upcoming event.

2) Call the campaign, and ask for the finance department, then ask for the contact information on the fundraiser responsible for your area. All the top tier candidates have fundraisiers assigned to each area in a state. They are a seperate entity from the campaign, bound by contract and fees.

3) Once you've identified the fundraiser, put a call in to see when the next event is, and ask if you can get any information sent your way. Better yet, ask to be put on the distribution list. Candidates plan events 2-3 months well ahead, so it is never too early!

4) Yikes! $2,000 per person??! How can I afford that! Rest assured - there are other ways! A great method is to offer to volunteer at the event. Give your contact information, and let them know you can work the registration table, or help with any other function of the event. If you are VERY lucky, you may be the pusher/puller at the photo-op line. Be steadfast about it! If they don't need you, ask them to keep you in mind for the next event.

You can also try negotiating. Make it known that you want to contribute, but only to an event when the candidate will be around town. Sometimes if they are falling behind pledges, it will slide!

If you absolutely have to contribute to attend an event, it also pays to wait around. Early fundraising events target major donors who can max-out at the limit of $2,300/person. Once a campaign has tapped out a majority of the big contribuers, it has to move on to "smaller fish." Ticket prices can go down to $200 or $100.

"Candidates shell out for booze, baseball"

2007-07-19T11:39:00.000-07:00

I stumbled by this article on Politico.com called "Candidates shell out for booze, baseball." You can read more about it here. There are some quirky expenditures on random stuff, but I'll be spending a few minutes talking about booze here.

Alcohol usually comes in two forms at fundraising events.

The first case, is a simple reception event, where guests get to mingle a bit and hear the candidate speak for a few minutes. Wine is usually the staple drink of major donors, with some getting an occasional cocktail. The truth is, most speeches that Congressmen, Senators, even the wannabes give are boring.

Secondly, alcohol can be a supplement to a lunch or dinner. The "standard" fundraising meal for lunch is usually chicken with some vegetables, and dinners are filet mignon steaks with guess what? More vegetables! Gotta love the red and white wine!

I don't mind it - because when I'm at those events, I'll pick up a nice cold drink once in a while!

Giuliani Girl vs Obama Girl

2007-07-17T08:35:00.000-07:00

For the longest time, sex and politics never mixed well together -until this election cycle. About a month or two ago there was a "Obama Girl" video, which featured a pretty smoking brunette in an MTV-like video obsessing about Barack Obama and his Presidential bid.

This week, a new "Giuliani Girl vs Obama Girl" clip surfaced the internet this week. Perhaps both authors of the videos made this for fun, but it brings an interesting perspective on selling politics via sex appeal. Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekSxxlj6rGE

I'll be waiting on the "Romney Girl" video, featuring super hot Mormon girls....

Snowball Effect

2007-07-10T08:38:00.000-07:00

Snowballing in fundraising can work for you, and against you. It's natural for people to bet their money on a winner. When you are doing great in fundraising, donors are more inclined to give more, and get their friends to contribute also.

If you're doing bad like McCain, you fall into a downwards spiral that is tough to get out of. If you look at the news today, it's not so pretty. His Campaign Manager and Chief Strategist just resigned, probably having to take responsibility for driving the campaign into the ground.

The Press Release:

Campaign Manager, Chief Strategist for McCain resignTue Jul 10 2007 11:23:10

ET ARLINGTON, VA - Terry Nelson, Campaign Manager and John Weaver, Chief Strategist for John McCain 2008 issued the following statements: "This morning I informed Senator McCain that I would be resigning from his presidential campaign, effective immediately. It has been a tremendous honor to serve Senator McCain and work on his campaign. I believe John McCain is the most experienced and prepared candidate to represent the Republican Party and defeat the Democratic nominee next year." - Terry Nelson, Campaign Manager

"As of today, I have resigned my position as chief strategist to John McCain's presidential campaign. It has been my honor and a distinct privilege to serve someone who has always put our country first. I believe that most Americans will come to the conclusion that I have long known there is only one person equipped to serve as our nation's chief executive and deal with the challenges we face, and that person is John McCain." - John Weaver, Chief Strategist

Come on John...

2007-07-02T16:47:00.000-07:00

If you have been following the news, John McCain reported his Q2 Fundraising at an abysmal $11 million. What is even more shocking is his remaining cash-on-hand - $2 million. His campaign manager is not taking a salary anymore, and his staff is being downsized by ~30%.

Here is what I beleive McCain's camp had in mind going into 2007:
1) He is the current "frontrunner" if the election were held in late 2006.
2) Hire all the political talent to deter other potential candidates.
3) Maintaining the status quo is more important that fundraising.

McCain had his campaign geared for a general election. The money simply wasn't there to support it. Poised as the frontrunner, it was assumed that the money would flow in.

Had he exceeded his Q1 fundraising, it would have been a much prettier picture. For Q3, it won't get any better, as Fred Thompson will soon be joining the race.

The advantage McCain has now is that any improvement he gets will be enormously positive since he has sinked so low.

ROMNEY DMFB

2007-06-25T22:19:00.000-07:00

Mitt Romney Gives Money to His Presidential Campaign Again

BOSTON — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney said Monday he has given money to his campaign for a second time and may do so again before Saturday's fundraising deadline.

"My message is important and critical to get out in this country, and I recognized that there are a lot of people making big contributions," Romney said. "It would be nice not to have to loan or contribute to your campaign. But the reality is if you want to have a strong campaign that gets out there and can talk across the nation, your going to have to do what's necessary."

I think he is doing this to also send a message towards those thinking of joining the race. "I'm Mitt Romney, and I will make this a slogfest for you if you choose to join after this reporting deadline."

See my poker analogy below.

Mitt Romney just raised everyone after the flop, but it's the right thing to do with three-of-a-kinds in Holdem: Play 'em quick, and Play 'em and hard.

Can't let anyone catch a straight or higher, and make sure that if they do try to fish for the card, they pay dearly for it.

Poker and Fundraising

2007-06-25T09:15:00.000-07:00

If fundraising were a round of Texas Hold-em, the current situation is like this:

ROMNEY: 8 Spades, 8 Clover
MCCAIN: A Hearts, 2 Clover
GIULIANI: J Spades, 10 Hearts
FLOP: 9 Spades, 8 Hearts, A spades,

Pre Flop:
- Romney: Has a pocket pair, but it'll need some good cards to hold up.
- McCain: Big Blind, has an Ace as a strong hand start, but weak kicker
- Giuliani: Mediocre hand starting hand, small blind.

Flop:
- Giuliani doesn't hit anything, but he has an open ended straight.
- Romney his a three of the kind, current frontrunner.
- McCain hits a high pair Ace, but his kicker is weak.

Here's a great article about this quarter's reporting, link to article here.

Bloomberg Camp Looking Into '08 Ticket

2007-06-22T11:06:00.000-07:00

Surprisingly, the buzz aroud Bloomberg has really picked up the past couple of days.

I've only been in this business for about two years, but since the 2005 days before anyone announced their Presidential aspirations, there was a general script you followed which was a fine line in hinting about a presidential run, and Bloomberg is definitely taking those steps.

This typically involved making a Political Action Committee, giving lots of speeches around the country about generic things. For example: how we need change things, make them work, and approach the challeneges facing our nation. (Basically, a speech that entails what the next president needs to fix, but not mentioning that you want to be the man to do the job!)

Some examples from Bloomberg:

A) "I believe we can turn around the county's wrong-headed course, but only if we base actions on ideas, shared values, and a commitment to solve problems without regard to party," he said on Tuesday.

B) One telling sign that Bloomberg is gearing for a campaign is the fact that he's taken 26 trips in the last year outside of New York to push issues that were important to the city, but also to the country. That's eight more trips than he took during his entire first term as mayor.

C) Unity08, a site that supports Bloomberg, recently tried to reform into a Political Action Committee from a non-profit organization. They intended to do this after all the candidates were announced for '08. By transforming into a PAC, they can easily serve as a platform for Bloomberg to start his campaign, eventually transforming into a full presidential vehicle.

+2 to the Race...

2007-06-20T09:03:00.000-07:00

Bloomberg: Quit the GOP this week, and I'm betting he will announce after June 30th. But will he win? Probably not. Fundraising won't be his problem too. He will definitely self-fund. Self-funding saves enormous amounts of time, but it doesnt look good on the books when trying to win an election.

Fred Thompson is scheduled to announce on July 4th. The 9/30 filing deadline for Q3 will be a big test for Fred's campaign - it will make or break him. If he does great in fundraising and stays high in the polls, people will look at him even closer. If he raises more than John McCain in Q3, it will be a huge deal.

Now, if he doesn't come close to Giuliani or McCain, his ability to run the campaign through the long haul will be put into question.

What will be interesting is when all the gloves come off and the attacks start happening to everyone that is in this race.....

Presidential Fundraising 101

2007-06-19T09:00:00.000-07:00

1) Corporate contributions are not allowed.
Federal Officeholders such as Congressmen/Senators cannot accept money from corporations.

2) The personal limit per election is $2,300.
Primary/General elections are treated as separate elections. So one can potentially give up to $4,600 for both elections.

3) There are four campaign contribution reporting deadlines per year.
March 30th, June 30th, September 30th, December 31st. These are critical days for each campaign, as everyone wants to project strength from numbers.

4) Contributors that can get their friends/family to donate are exponentially more valuable that one that can just "max-out."
The donors that can pull this off are more valuable because of the contribution limits.

5) Small donations add up quickly.
Not only that, but with a lot of small money spread across the country, it shows that the candidate has widespread support and a strong backing.

Report Cards of Quarter 2

2007-06-18T12:46:00.000-07:00

On June 30th, all the presidential candidates - Democrat, Republican, Independent, Green, Etc... will be filing the Q2 Fundraising and Expenditure reports to the FEC.

In Q1, Gov. Mitt Romney came out first on the Republican side, with Mayor Giuliani in second, then Senator John McCain as third. I remain confident that Governor Romney will come out on top again in fundraising in the second quarter.

Here are my bold predictions on total RAISED for Q2:

Republicans
Governor Mitt Romney: $16-$19 Million
Mayor Rudy Giuliani: $14-$17 Million
Senator John McCain: $9-$12 Million

Some candidates may be reporting both Primary/General contributions, as raising money for both elections can significantly boost your "totals." However, the money raised for the General Election cannot be used - your candidate has to make it through the Primaries in order for that to be possible.

Then why do it? The advantage is twofold.

1) As I mentioned earlier, it boosts your numbers. Why only shoot for $15 million, when you can raise $20 - but can only legally use $15 ?

2) Assume you win the Primary Election, the General money can be used immediately the day after. Should you lose, it must be returned to the respective donors.